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GBP/USD exchange rate to firm following UK retail sales? » Future Currency Forecast

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GBP/USD exchange rate ticks up amid risk-on flows

The pound US dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is edging higher today amid upbeat trading conditions.

At the time of writing the GBP/USD exchange rate is trading at around $1.2478, up roughly 0.2% from this morning’s opening rate.

Pound (GBP) to drift higher following retail sales?

The pound (GBP) could strengthen at the end of this week with the publication of the UK’s latest retail sales data.

March’s figures are forecast to show a 0.3% increase in sales growth, rising from a previous reading of 0%.

Should the data print in line with expectations and confirm a slight increase in retail sales in March, the pound could end the week on the front foot against its peers.

However today, GBP is mostly rangebound as limited economic data releases have left the currency trading without a clear trajectory.

Amid an absence of UK data, GBP investor attention has turned to a recent speech by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey.

Speaking in Washington yesterday evening, Bailey addressed concerns that inflation isn’t cooling as quickly as once thought and warned of ‘quite a strong drop’ in inflation during the month of April.

This reignited BoE interest rate cut bets, with many experts speculating over an early summer rate cut, which in turn dampened demand for Sterling throughout the first half of today’s European session.

Limited data to infuse volatility in the US dollar (USD)?

The US dollar (USD) saw limited movement this morning as a data-light trading session has left the ‘greenback’ struggling to catch bids.

Further undermining USD exchange rates today is a cautiously optimistic market mood. As a safe-haven currency, improvement in risk appetite often hinders USD exchange rates.

Looking ahead to the remainder of this week, significant US data releases will remain few and far between which could see USD investor attention shift to the latest initial jobless claims for the week ending 13 April.

Expected for release on Thursday, the latest initial jobless claims are forecast to have increased over the week, which may undermine USD exchange rates on the back of a seemingly weakening labour market.

Read More: GBP/USD exchange rate to firm following UK retail sales? » Future Currency Forecast

2024-04-18 12:47:43

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